Anderson@Large

Voting in America: Double Bubble Trouble

More than a week after the California Democratic primary, tens of thousands of ballots have not been counted in Los Angeles County. The ballots were cast by independent, “decline to state,” voters who failed to fill in the Democratic oval on the Democratic ballot.

The Courage Campaign’s warning about the ballot design fell on deaf ears:

A few days before the primary, lawyers for the Courage Campaign uncovered the "double bubble" problem -- a shocking requirement that "Decline-to-State" voters fill in a redundant "Democratic" bubble (on a ballot clearly marked "Democratic Party") as well as a bubble next to their preferred presidential candidate. Our legal team realized that -- without the "Democratic" bubble filled in -- the county's optical scanners would void votes for "President of the United States," regardless of voter intent.

Unfortunately, Dean Logan, the Registrar in charge of Los Angeles County, is refusing to conduct a physical hand-count of every "Decline-to-State" vote before the official vote is certified in just a few weeks.

There is concern the uncounted ballots could change the election outcome. The Los Angeles Times has reamed election officials:

Election officials are calling this a glitch, but the outcome was entirely foreseeable. In fact, it has happened before. In the March 2004 election, 44% of crossover ballots were unusable, and in June 2006, it was 42%. With numbers this high, the county registrar should have investigated this matter long before now.

This election season is the most exciting in decades. The race to determine whether the Democratic presidential nomination will go to the first woman or the first African American has drawn voters to polls and caucuses in record numbers, and voters in Los Angeles County were no exception.

Under any circumstances, it's troubling to see a vote go uncounted; it's especially so when history is being made.

History was made in Florida in 2000 when tens of thousands of ballots were tossed out in Palm Beach and Duval counties in a presidential election that was too close to call. The butterfly ballot design nearly triggered a constitutional crisis.

In November, voters will choose between presidential candidates of “stark differences.” If the election is again too close to call, all hell will break loose if voters are disenfranchised by design.

For an update on the LA County ballot mess, tune in to KQED Forum today at 1pm ET/10am PT. An MP3 download of the program is available here.

The Real 'Slick Willie'

Folks, meet Willie Brown, the former California Assembly Speaker and former mayor of San Francisco. Bill Clinton bestowed the honorific, the real "Slick Willie," on Brown over games of blackjack in the early 1980s.

At a recent forum with "Da Mayor" organized by the Oxonian Society, Brown regaled the audience with tales from his storied political career. Though he is close to the Clintons, he has not endorsed Hillary. He doesn't plan to endorse a candidate because he does not want to compromise his credibility as a TV analyst.

With that disclaimer, Brown observed:

Hillary’s campaign has been conducted to her detriment. It should have been conducted as an applicant rather than on the assumption of entitlement. She should have made her gender a cornerstone of a candidacy that would have been as big a change as the first black president.

He added:

In the world of politics, experience is highly overrated. Hillary made the mistake that the voters would be enthralled with her experience over a newcomer with enthusiasm.

Her campaign has been a disaster for what should have been a spectacular candidacy. She is as unique to this process as Barack Obama, and she is as much of a change agent as Barack Obama.

Brown said Obama is on "the threshold of putting together seven consecutive victories." He predicted Obama will sweep the Potomac Primary.

Brown conjectured that Obama started thinking about his candidacy early on:

He has done the things that have prepared him to be president. He positioned himself so as not to be perceived as a black presidential candidate, but as a qualified candidate who just happens to be black.

Obama correctly assessed that black people would be so enthusiastic and proud that he wouldn’t have to do anything.

Brown was national chairman of Jesse Jackson’s 1988 campaign. Jackson, in contrast, struggled to get white votes:

Obama has eliminated the need to even address the question. Whether he can go the full distance, I don’t know. But he has made it patently okay to vote for a black if you’re not black, and made it mandatory to vote for him if you are black.

I asked Brown about the role of superdelegates and to address the chatter about an alleged conspiracy to “steal” the election from Obama.

Brown said “people who fear they’re losing or are going to lose” peddle conspiracy theories. “In politics, you win or lose. You have to accept each role.”

The Democratic Party set its own rules. Before the 1972 convention, newcomers were locked out. That changed with the McGovern Rule, which opened up the process and made it possible for a non-Establishment candidate to pile up delegates. In fact, Brown led the credentials floor fight in 1972.

And contrary to conventional wisdom, superdelegates are not “hacks.” Brown said they have earned a seat at the table:

Superdelegates are people who deserve, on the basis of their work, to participate in the selection of their standard bearer. Too many people come to the party for the first time and think they’re entitled. They just show up and want to call the shots.

Brown was dismissive of "one-issue persons" and "Johnny-come-latelys who come with all their friends and relatives and leave."

Superdelegates are there for the long haul. The rules are designed to ensure that there is still a Democratic Party when the political novices leave. So, their principal concern is:

How do we win the election against Republicans? We do it by hard work. The critics of superdelegates should be respectful of that history. They should change the process by participating in it not by discrediting it.

The bottom line: "The rules are the rules. If you lose, you lose."

Democratic Groundhog Day

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are costarring in the political equivalence of “Groundhog Day.” Another day, another round of contests, still no clear front-runner.

Obama won the Louisiana primary with the support of African Americans, who made up nearly half of Democratic voters. At the same time, exit polls show Clinton won the “white primary” with 75 percent of the white vote.

Obama again demonstrated his strength among white caucus-goers, winning 59 percent of the vote in Maine. Obama beat Clinton two to one in Nebraska and Washington, where there were record turnouts.

I chatted with Charles Rolland, a former deputy mayor of Seattle and former chair of the Washington Democratic Party. I met Charles a couple of years ago in DC at an event commemorating the 10th anniversary of the Million Man March.

Charles organized Precinct 37-1838, which caucused at the Washington Middle School in Seattle. The lunchroom was “overflowing” with caucus-goers. He told me:

I haven’t seen this many people ever. I saw people that I've never seen at a Democratic caucus, including some Republicans.

Up until two weeks ago, Charles was neutral in the Democratic primary race:

Young people came to me and said that’s not acceptable, especially for you. They expressed such passion for him that I felt compelled to support what they were supporting.

So, when it came time to stand up in his caucus, Charles stood up for Obama. And he had lots of company. Of the 112 caucus-goers in his precinct, 99 voted for Obama and 11 voted for Clinton. Of the seven uncommitted, five switched to Obama; two remained uncommitted. "Nobody switched to Hillary."

BTW, Charles was a foot soldier in Jesse Jackson’s 1984 campaign and Washington state director of Jackson’s 1988 presidential run. So, naturally, I asked him to compare Jackson’s and Obama’s campaigns. Charles observed:

They are very similar although Obama probably appeals to the middle and mainstream Democrats. Jackson appealed to the left and those left of center. Obama is reaching the center of the party.

In 1988, we were able to bring in a lot more experienced organizers. By contrast, I see a lot of mainstream people who are just hungry after Bush. They’re looking for something different. Bush has disillusioned a lot of idealists who have now turned to Obama looking for something different.

On to Tuesday’s Potomac Primary.

Dems’ Rocky Mountain High

Now that Mitt Romney has thrown in the towel, Republicans have begun to circle the wagon around their presumptive nominee John McCain. In his remarks before the Conservative Political Action Conference, McCain said:

I know I have a responsibility, if I am, as I hope to be, the Republican nominee for President, to unite the party and prepare for the great contest in November. And I am acutely aware that I cannot succeed in that endeavor, nor can our party prevail over the challenge we will face from either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama, without the support of dedicated conservatives, whose convictions, creativity and energy have been indispensable to the success our party has had over the last quarter century.

Meanwhile, Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean has sounded the alarm about a possible circular firing squad as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton battle it out for the Democratic nomination. Dean told NY1:

We’re going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement, because I don't think we can afford to have a brokered convention, that would not be good news for either party.

Time will tell whether the Democratic National Convention is “brokered” but planning is underway to ensure it’s not broken. Convention planners are on a high about their “historic” event, which will be held Aug. 25-28 at the Pepsi Center in Denver.

In a conference call for African American media outlets, Travis Dredd, Deputy CEO for “Inside the Hall” Operations, said:

The convention will showcase the new kind of leadership the Democratic Party is bringing to the country at all levels. It will be historic whether the nominee is a woman or an African American.

The party is strong. It will be one of the most historic conventions this country has ever seen, and a path to victory for the 2008 election.

African Americans will indeed play historic roles at the convention. Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin, a Permanent Convention Co-Chair, will preside over the ratification of the National Platform and help maintain order.

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is Co-Chair of the Platform Committee. Also serving on the committee are Trenton Mayor Douglas Palmer, San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris and National Education Association President Reg Weaver.

But the first order of business will be the report from the Credentials Committee, which is co-chaired by Alexis Herman. Members include Baltimore Mayor Sheila Dixon, Berkeley Law School Dean Christopher Edley Jr. and Janice Griffin. They will have their hands full sorting out the mess with the Michigan and Florida delegations.

Information about the 2008 Democratic National Convention is available here.

Democrats' Racial Divide

As I watched the TV coverage of Super Tuesday, I was struck that there were two Democratic races: the primary elections and the caucuses. While Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton split the popular vote, the exit polls paint a different picture of voters’ preferences.

Obama won Illinois, and primary elections in states with a significant black population, Alabama and Georgia, or where there was a heavy black turnout, Delaware and Missouri. Young white voters propelled Obama to victory in Connecticut and Missouri, where they made up 10 percent of the electorate.

Black support for Obama ranged from 80 percent to 98 percent. But with the exception of Illinois, and young white voters in Connecticut and Georgia, Obama did not win the majority of white votes in a primary election.

By contrast, Obama handily won the six caucus states, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota and North Dakota. Not to put too fine a point on it, but Obama does better among whites when they cast their vote in a public caucus rather than by secret ballot. While it may not be the “Bradley effect,” as Obama supporter Robert De Niro might say: “It’s something.”

Obama received little support among Latinos outside of Illinois. Even in his home state, he received only 52 percent of the Latino vote.

Though there is no clear front-runner, we now have a clearer picture of Clinton’s and Obama’s supporters. Looking ahead, Clinton may be in a stronger position given the demographics of delegate-rich states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas.

The Democratic nomination will be won by whichever side better mobilizes his or her supporters. It clearly won’t be won by celebrity endorsements or some mythical passing of the torch. Parenthetically, I hope Obama’s loss in Massachusetts finally closes the book on “Camelot.”

For more commentary, check out my post on AOL Black Voices, “Obama Changes the Game (Maybe).”

It’s All Over but the Counting

Super Tuesday is finally here. Though both Republicans and Democrats are casting votes today, all eyes will be on Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Will she or won’t she pull ahead of Obama who’s nipping at her sensible heels? Will he or won’t he win support from Latino voters?

Will there be voting irregularities at polling places? In a word, yes and yes.

Unlike most political junkies, I am not spending the day glued to my TV screen or computer monitor. Instead, I plan to visit various polling places, attend a panel discussion on illegal immigration, and enjoy the music of Duke Ellington at a Black History Month celebration.

By the time I get home, the polls will be closed except in California. I hope the TV bloviators are able to restrain themselves, let the democratic process run its course and not project a winner before the polls close in that state.

For voter information for your state, including photo ID requirements, click here.

Barack to the Future

The Obama campaign has gone to the dogs. No, really. Some folks in my neighborhood held a “Barks for Barack” in recognition of Barack Obama’s underdog status in New York, where Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead.

On Saturday, I stuck my head in the Harlem headquarters. Volunteers were dispatched from the War Hope Room to go leafleting. While there were a number of African Americans, I saw mostly college-age whites on the streets of Harlem, including the two women who were manning the table in front of the historic Victoria Theater.

Polls show Obama and Clinton in a virtual tie nationally. Obama’s support among African Americans is  62 percent.

But it’s not a national election. For Democrats, it’s not even a state election since delegates are allocated by congressional district.

After the New Hampshire polling debacle, the only polls that count are the ones that open and close tomorrow.

That said, the demographics of the electorate in delegate-rich states like California, New Jersey, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado may determine Obama’s destiny.

If so, we may be back to a future where “hope” is just another four-letter word.