Anderson@Large

Presidential Numbers Game

Barack Obama coasted to victory in Wisconsin and Hawaii. With ten victories in a row over Hillary Clinton, Obama is piling up pledged delegates. And pledged delegates is the name of the game.

In advance of the Wisconsin primary, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters:

We judge each contest on the delegates. We want to come out of Wisconsin able to maintain our pledged delegate lead.

Harvard Law Prof. Charles Ogletree, a senior adviser to the Obama campaign, told me:

This is the most important victory of 2008. Hillary Clinton was ahead in Wisconsin by double digit figures. Young people, senior citizens, women and men decided Barack Obama is the only candidate who has a reasonable chance of winning the White House in 2008.

The combination of traditional Democratic voters, new young voters and independents has created an avalanche of support for Senator Barack Obama and his national campaign. He has been successful in all four regions of the country and in most cases he’s received 60 percent of the vote or more.

We’re looking forward to Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.

While Obama is clearly on a roll, he may still fall short of the magic number 2,025 delegates needed to win the nomination. Not a problem, says Ogletree:

The Democratic Party will come together and embrace one candidate we collectively believe can take back the White House for the first time since the Bush years.

The fierce and appropriate campaign among the candidates will all be resolved after March 4, and there will be a united party going forward from April through November. Together we can win this.

Clinton is a fierce competitor and "fighter." But there is a dwindling number of states left to slow Obama's roll.

Sharpton Blows Dems' Rocky Mountain High

Voters head to the polls in frigid Wisconsin and Hawaii today. Wisconsin's 74 pledged delegates are in play but it’s the delegates, or more accurately, the wannabe delegates from Michigan and Florida that are sending chills down Democrats’ spines.

The Democratic National Committee’s delegate allocation rules mean the nomination likely will not be decided by the end of the voting season. So, there is growing concern that the unresolved status of the Michigan and Florida delegations will lead to chaos at the national convention.

In a conference call with reporters, Obama’s national campaign manager David Plouffe said:

The DNC has been pretty clear because of their rules, there are no delegates awarded. There is no tolerance for the Clinton campaign trying to change the rules. …Any effort to try to seat Florida and Michigan will not be tolerated by the party leadership.

Nor will any political machinations be tolerated by the Rev. Al Sharpton. At the weekly rally of the National Action Network, Sharpton said:

The Democratic National Committee set the rules and publicized the consequences. ...Now they want to change the rules and seat the people of Michigan and Florida, which is a direct violation of the voting rights of the citizens of those states who didn’t vote because they were told their votes wouldn’t count.

Sharpton made it clear he is “not helping Obama.” Instead, he’s “helping voting rights.” He added:

We will fight with litigation or demonstration. We will go to the courts or the streets, but we will not seat the Michigan and Florida delegations. If I can fight the Republicans in 2000 about a voting rights matter, certainly I’m not going to let the party I voted for violate voting rights.

No matter what happens, we’re going to be on the front ready to go. …The process must be clear and fair and obvious to all.

Sharpton made note that the shortage of hotel rooms in Denver will not be a problem:

We’ll camp out right where you’re staying. It’s hot in Denver, we’ll sleep outside.

And don’t expect Sharpton to be singing “Kumbaya” around a campfire.

Imus Can't Help It

More than 50 years ago, Little Richard had a hit with "The Girl Can’t Help It." Don Imus’ sexism and racism are likewise straight out of the 1950s. But unlike the girl "who was born to please," Imus seemingly was born to pis diss women and blacks.

Fortunately, Media Matters monitors "Imus in the Morning." So, I don’t have to start my day with morning sickness. On a recent show Imus sank to a new low:

On the February 13 edition of Imus in the Morning, during a segment referred to as the second episode of "Imus in the Morning Radio Theater on the Air," regular guest, comedian, and impersonator Rob Bartlett played the character of "former president Billy Clayton" and left a message for "Kelsey Clayton," his daughter. During the message, Billy Clayton referred to "this pineapple-eatin' [Borat] Ohana" and asked Kelsey Clayton to "campaign for" her mother -- Hailey Clayton, a "New York Senator" and "onetime front-runner for the Democratic nomination" -- and "have sex with" delegates.

In character as "Billy Clayton," Bartlett said:

Hello, Puddin' Pop? It's Daddy. Listen, Love Bug, Mommy and me need you to do us a favor. If she's ever gonna beat this pineapple-eatin' Ohana, we need you to campaign for her, help her get some delegates. Now, I want you to understand that we don't want to exploit you. We don't want you buying them drinks or taking them to dinner or getting them gifts. We just want you to have sex with them.

When Imus returned to the air, he promised "no one else will say anything on my program to make anyone think I didn't deserve a second chance."

You can't teach an old dog new tricks so I had my doubts that Imus would seize the "opportunity to have a better program." He hasn’t.

Imus also promised to:

Never say anything in my lifetime that will make the young women at Rutgers regret that they accepted my apology or forgave me.

The Scarlet Knights must be red face that another accomplished young woman, Chelsea Clinton, is the target of Imus’ demeaning sexist "comedy."

Voting in America: Double Bubble Trouble

More than a week after the California Democratic primary, tens of thousands of ballots have not been counted in Los Angeles County. The ballots were cast by independent, “decline to state,” voters who failed to fill in the Democratic oval on the Democratic ballot.

The Courage Campaign’s warning about the ballot design fell on deaf ears:

A few days before the primary, lawyers for the Courage Campaign uncovered the "double bubble" problem -- a shocking requirement that "Decline-to-State" voters fill in a redundant "Democratic" bubble (on a ballot clearly marked "Democratic Party") as well as a bubble next to their preferred presidential candidate. Our legal team realized that -- without the "Democratic" bubble filled in -- the county's optical scanners would void votes for "President of the United States," regardless of voter intent.

Unfortunately, Dean Logan, the Registrar in charge of Los Angeles County, is refusing to conduct a physical hand-count of every "Decline-to-State" vote before the official vote is certified in just a few weeks.

There is concern the uncounted ballots could change the election outcome. The Los Angeles Times has reamed election officials:

Election officials are calling this a glitch, but the outcome was entirely foreseeable. In fact, it has happened before. In the March 2004 election, 44% of crossover ballots were unusable, and in June 2006, it was 42%. With numbers this high, the county registrar should have investigated this matter long before now.

This election season is the most exciting in decades. The race to determine whether the Democratic presidential nomination will go to the first woman or the first African American has drawn voters to polls and caucuses in record numbers, and voters in Los Angeles County were no exception.

Under any circumstances, it's troubling to see a vote go uncounted; it's especially so when history is being made.

History was made in Florida in 2000 when tens of thousands of ballots were tossed out in Palm Beach and Duval counties in a presidential election that was too close to call. The butterfly ballot design nearly triggered a constitutional crisis.

In November, voters will choose between presidential candidates of “stark differences.” If the election is again too close to call, all hell will break loose if voters are disenfranchised by design.

For an update on the LA County ballot mess, tune in to KQED Forum today at 1pm ET/10am PT. An MP3 download of the program is available here.

McCain: It's A Wrap

As the nation prepares to observe Presidents’ Day, John McCain clearly doesn’t think Mike Huckabee will be in that number in this election cycle. And neither does the House Republican leadership.

House Minority Leader John Boehner said:

John McCain is an American hero and will make an excellent president of the United States. McCain has a solid conservative record as one of the most vocal opponents of wasteful spending, a staunch defender of America's national security and a strong believer in the sanctity of human life. He is uniquely suited to lead our country forward as we take on the many opportunities and challenges of the years ahead.

The none-too-subtle message that it's time to wrap it up was echoed by McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis. In a memo to "Team McCain," Davis wrote:

Last night, after our strong victories in Virginia, Maryland and Washington, DC, I put together an analysis of the state of the race for the Republican nomination. Including the delegates won last night, John McCain is now close to securing the number of delegates needed to be the presumptive Republican nominee. In addition, it is now mathematically impossible for Mike Huckabee to win enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination; there simply aren’t enough delegates left at stake for him to win.

All is not lost for Huckabee. There’s always Hope -- Arkansas.

Potomac Fever

Obamamania rages on both sides of the Potomac River. Barack Obama swept primaries in Maryland and Virginia, and trounced Hillary Clinton in the District of Columbia.

In his victory speech, Obama said:

We have given young people a reason to believe, and brought folks back to the polls who want to believe again.

Indeed, exit polls show Obama enjoyed wide support across all demographic groups, including older voters. But he rocks among African Americans and young white voters.

Young white voters clearly want a “new direction” from George W. Bush and Obama’s “cousin,” Dick Cheney. But in one of life’s little ironies, Bush is partly responsible for neutralizing race as a factor.

While the polls were still open, I attended a lecture at the New School on “Race and National Politics in America: A Historical Perspective” given by Prof. Greggory Keith Spence.

Prof. Spence said “voters 30 and under have come of age when they experienced substantial numbers of African Americans in positions of responsibility” in government, politics, business, media and the entertainment industy.

Obama’s supporters oppose the Bush Doctrine advanced by Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice, but their high profiles provide the opportunity for whites to see African Americans “actively engaged in every aspect of American society.”

The delegate count remains close but as Prof. Spence observed: “That man is on a roll.”

On, Wisconsin.

The Real 'Slick Willie'

Folks, meet Willie Brown, the former California Assembly Speaker and former mayor of San Francisco. Bill Clinton bestowed the honorific, the real "Slick Willie," on Brown over games of blackjack in the early 1980s.

At a recent forum with "Da Mayor" organized by the Oxonian Society, Brown regaled the audience with tales from his storied political career. Though he is close to the Clintons, he has not endorsed Hillary. He doesn't plan to endorse a candidate because he does not want to compromise his credibility as a TV analyst.

With that disclaimer, Brown observed:

Hillary’s campaign has been conducted to her detriment. It should have been conducted as an applicant rather than on the assumption of entitlement. She should have made her gender a cornerstone of a candidacy that would have been as big a change as the first black president.

He added:

In the world of politics, experience is highly overrated. Hillary made the mistake that the voters would be enthralled with her experience over a newcomer with enthusiasm.

Her campaign has been a disaster for what should have been a spectacular candidacy. She is as unique to this process as Barack Obama, and she is as much of a change agent as Barack Obama.

Brown said Obama is on "the threshold of putting together seven consecutive victories." He predicted Obama will sweep the Potomac Primary.

Brown conjectured that Obama started thinking about his candidacy early on:

He has done the things that have prepared him to be president. He positioned himself so as not to be perceived as a black presidential candidate, but as a qualified candidate who just happens to be black.

Obama correctly assessed that black people would be so enthusiastic and proud that he wouldn’t have to do anything.

Brown was national chairman of Jesse Jackson’s 1988 campaign. Jackson, in contrast, struggled to get white votes:

Obama has eliminated the need to even address the question. Whether he can go the full distance, I don’t know. But he has made it patently okay to vote for a black if you’re not black, and made it mandatory to vote for him if you are black.

I asked Brown about the role of superdelegates and to address the chatter about an alleged conspiracy to “steal” the election from Obama.

Brown said “people who fear they’re losing or are going to lose” peddle conspiracy theories. “In politics, you win or lose. You have to accept each role.”

The Democratic Party set its own rules. Before the 1972 convention, newcomers were locked out. That changed with the McGovern Rule, which opened up the process and made it possible for a non-Establishment candidate to pile up delegates. In fact, Brown led the credentials floor fight in 1972.

And contrary to conventional wisdom, superdelegates are not “hacks.” Brown said they have earned a seat at the table:

Superdelegates are people who deserve, on the basis of their work, to participate in the selection of their standard bearer. Too many people come to the party for the first time and think they’re entitled. They just show up and want to call the shots.

Brown was dismissive of "one-issue persons" and "Johnny-come-latelys who come with all their friends and relatives and leave."

Superdelegates are there for the long haul. The rules are designed to ensure that there is still a Democratic Party when the political novices leave. So, their principal concern is:

How do we win the election against Republicans? We do it by hard work. The critics of superdelegates should be respectful of that history. They should change the process by participating in it not by discrediting it.

The bottom line: "The rules are the rules. If you lose, you lose."