As I watched the TV coverage of Super Tuesday, I was struck that there were two Democratic races: the primary elections and the caucuses. While Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton split the popular vote, the exit polls paint a different picture of voters’ preferences.
Obama won Illinois, and primary elections in states with a significant black population, Alabama and Georgia, or where there was a heavy black turnout, Delaware and Missouri. Young white voters propelled Obama to victory in Connecticut and Missouri, where they made up 10 percent of the electorate.
Black support for Obama ranged from 80 percent to 98 percent. But with the exception of Illinois, and young white voters in Connecticut and Georgia, Obama did not win the majority of white votes in a primary election.
By contrast, Obama handily won the six caucus states, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota and North Dakota. Not to put too fine a point on it, but Obama does better among whites when they cast their vote in a public caucus rather than by secret ballot. While it may not be the “Bradley effect,” as Obama supporter Robert De Niro might say: “It’s something.”
Obama received little support among Latinos outside of Illinois. Even in his home state, he received only 52 percent of the Latino vote.
Though there is no clear front-runner, we now have a clearer picture of Clinton’s and Obama’s supporters. Looking ahead, Clinton may be in a stronger position given the demographics of delegate-rich states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas.
The Democratic nomination will be won by whichever side better mobilizes his or her supporters. It clearly won’t be won by celebrity endorsements or some mythical passing of the torch. Parenthetically, I hope Obama’s loss in Massachusetts finally closes the book on “Camelot.”
For more commentary, check out my post on AOL Black Voices, “Obama Changes the Game (Maybe).”
