Tonight, Iowa voters, or more accurately, a narrow slice of caucus-goers, will separate the presidential contenders from the pretenders. Or not.
On the Democratic side, the race is too close to call. Polls show Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in a three-way tie. I won't predict a winner because race matters and respondents don't always tell pollsters what they really think on matters of race. So, it remains an unanswered question whether white voters are ready for a black president.
That said, the election will turn on voter turnout. While a record turnout is expected, it's anyone's guess who will show up. Sixty percent are projected to be first-time caucus-goers; a whopping 40 percent may be independent voters.
Candidates will use high-tech data mining and low-tech "knock and drag" to get their supporters to the caucuses. While Clinton won't hang a lamb chop in the window á la Perle Mesta, she is dangling sandwiches and chips to draw crowds.
On the Republican side, it's a two-man race between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. In politics, organization trumps inspiration. Huckabee's underfunded volunteer army of Christian soldiers, home-schoolers and gun nuts will likely be outflanked by Romney's war chest and brigade of paid campaign workers.
