Anderson@Large

Clinton's Last Stand

After five months, the Democratic Party is down to the final two. When voters in Montana and South Dakota add their voices to the 35 million Democratic primary voters who have already weighed in, the party will have a nominee. Or not.

While Montana was the site of Custer’s last stand, Hillary Clinton has not given up the fight. Still, the election outcomes won't change the primary fact that Barack Obama has effectively clinched the nomination.

But the terms of Clinton's surrender have to be negotiated. The Washington Post reports:

Clinton sent mixed signals about her plans throughout the day Monday. As her campaign recalled field staffers to New York, one adviser indicated that she would suspend, but not end, her campaign within days. But the candidate herself said she will continue to argue to the group of party insiders who will hold sway over the final outcome that her strong showing in recent contests demonstrates that she would be the more electable candidate in November.

To soften the blow, Obama sent Clinton some flowery language:

Senator Clinton has run an outstanding race, she is an outstanding public servant, and she and I will be working together in November.

But he’s not waiting for Clinton to make up her mind. Nor is he waiting for the roughly 150 superdelegates who remain on the sidelines. Though he’s short of the 2,118 delegates needed to cross the finish line, Obama reportedly will claim victory tonight.

Meanwhile, WomenCount PAC has placed an ad in Roll Call and The Hill newspapers targeted to uncommitted superdelegates:

Superdelegates, look at the facts.
The voters have spoken.
And remember, this is not about you.
It's about us.

Amy Rao, one of WomenCount’s co-founders, said:

We want the superdelegates to take a long hard look at the electoral map and the primary math. Not only has Senator Clinton won the popular vote, she has won the key states that are crucial to any Democrat winning the White House in the fall.

I have a message to the women behind the woman: Hear this. It’s over.

Dems’ Racial Divide

As expected, Barack Obama won the North Carolina primary. Hillary Clinton eked out a slim victory in Indiana. The election outcomes were preordained by the demographics of the two states.

CNN exit polls show Democrats have not moved beyond race. In North Carolina, African Americans made up one-third of Democratic primary voters. Obama received 91 percent of the black vote to Clinton’s seven percent. Sixty-one percent of white voters supported Clinton, 37 percent supported Obama.

In Indiana, Obama received 90 percent of the black vote to Clinton’s 10 percent. Sixty percent of white voters supported Clinton, 40 percent backed Obama.

In his victory speech, Obama said:

This has been one of the longest, most closely fought contests in history. And that's partly because we have such a formidable opponent in Senator Hillary Clinton. Tonight, many of the pundits have suggested that this party is inalterably divided – that Senator Clinton's supporters will not support me, and that my supporters will not support her.

Well I'm here tonight to tell you that I don't believe it. Yes, there have been bruised feelings on both sides. Yes, each side desperately wants their candidate to win. But ultimately, this race is not about Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama or John McCain. This election is about you – the American people – and whether we will have a president and a party that can lead us toward a brighter future.

Meanwhile, Clinton doesn’t know the meaning of quit:

Now it is on to West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, and the other states where people are eager to have their voices heard. ...

And I am running to be the President of all of America - north, south, east and west, and everywhere in between. That’s why it is so important that we count the votes of Florida and Michigan.

With only six contests remaining, neither Obama nor Clinton will have enough pledged delegates to clinch the nomination when the primary season ends on June 3. So the superdelegates will have to make a Solomonic decision about which one is more electable.

In making that determination, they will have to consider the racial divide. There’s also a bitter divide between Clinton’s and Obama’s supporters. While 70 percent of Obama supporters they’d pull the lever for Clinton if she’s the nominee, only half of Clinton supporters say they would not vote for Obama if he’s the nominee.

In the coming weeks, there will be renewed calls for Clinton to drop out. But a new Gallup poll found that 60 percent of Democrats want the Clinton-Obama drama to continue.

Dem Game Changers

Hillary Clinton promises that tomorrow’s primaries in Indiana and North Carolina will be “a game-changer.” But some aren’t waiting for the election results to change the game.

Color of Change, an online advocacy group, has asked its 400,000 members to sign an open letter to Democratic leaders, including Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and all superdelegates.

Their petition effectively declares game over and Barack Obama is the winner:

Leaders of the Democratic Party are playing a dangerous game -- risking the credibility of the party to hand Hillary Clinton the nomination against the will of voters. Heading down this path means disenfranchising millions of voters and legitimizing a campaign strategy that has displayed a clear pattern of race baiting and divisive politics.

Join us in demanding that Democratic Party leadership and superdelegates uphold the integrity of the party and listen to the voice of voters.

In a nomination battle full of ironies, Obama likely would not sign the petition. During his appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Obama acknowledged that superdelegates are not required to “follow the will of voters”:

I, I think the superdelegates, by rule, can make their own decision. I think the superdelegates are going to take a look not at momentary snapshot polls, but they're going to take a look at who's run the campaign that can bring about change in America and can actually govern after the election.

I asked the good folks at Color of Change what they hoped to achieve. In an email message, their communications director, Mervyn Marcano, wrote:

We want the Democratic Party's nominee for the Presidency to be determined by the will of ordinary voters who have eagerly participated in primary contests across the country.  We also want party leaders to reject the pattern of race-baiting our members have seen the Clinton campaign rely on throughout the primary contests.

OK, so how do you reconcile your position with Democratic Party rules that make it clear that superdelegates can exercise independent judgment?

Good judgment is what our members are demanding from Democratic Party leaders.  They should cast their superdelegate vote in the best interest of the party; we think handing the nomination to a candidate by disenfranchising millions of voters is bad for democracy.

Well, isn’t it bad for democracy to add to the confusion, particularly for new voters who are not familiar with the nomination process?

This petition has a simple and basic demand -- when the people vote, those votes should not be overruled by party insiders.  What we're hearing is that voters, and new voters in particular, will be turned off if Democratic Party elites hand the nomination to Clinton, against the will of voters.

One question I didn’t ask: How does a race-based petition campaign help Obama broaden his appeal among white working-class voters?

Love Bites Superdelegates

Hillary Clinton lost one superdelegate when New York Luv Guv Eliot Spitzer resigned following reports that he used the services of a prostitution ring.

Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick’s indictment on eight felony counts, including perjury, obstruction of justice and misconduct in office, stems from testimony about an affair with his chief of staff. Depending on how this plays out, Barack Obama may have to subtract one superdelegate from his total.

But keep an eye on the scoreboard because another superdelegate might bite the dust. Client 9's successor, Gov. David Paterson, has admitted he too had extramarital affairs. While Paterson broke his marriage vows, he remains loyal to Clinton. He showed his loyalty by campaigning for her in Iowa and South Carolina. Fair enough. But reportedly one of his ex-lovers also was on the trips.

Meanwhile, some major donors want House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to show them some love. The Associated Press reports:

Twenty top Democratic donors who are supporting Hillary Rodham Clinton criticized House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for saying superdelegates should support the presidential candidate with the most pledged delegates.

Pelosi, who has not endorsed either candidate as chair of the Democratic National Convention, said during a March 16 appearance on ABC's "This Week" that it would be harmful to the party if superdelegates don't support the pledged delegate winner.

In their letter, Clinton's supporters said superdelegates "must look to not one criterion but to the full panoply of factors that will help them assess who will be the party's strongest nominee in the general election."

The letter also noted the donors "have been strong supporters" of the House Democrats' fundraising apparatus.

"We therefore urge you to clarify your position on superdelegates and reflect in your comments a more open view to the optional independent actions of each of the delegates at the national convention in August," they said.

Ah, love among the ruins.

Primary Concerns

Now that the dust has settled on Mini Tuesday, the dustup begins anew over the Michigan and Florida delegations. In touting her electability, Hillary Clinton mentioned the unmentionable: her victories in Michigan and Florida. This in turn raised hackles among Obama supporters, including Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., a national co-chairman of the Obama for President Campaign.

In a blog post, Jackson wrote:

At her campaign celebration last night in Ohio, Hillary Clinton raised the specter of a nasty, divisive fight at the Democratic National Convention, claiming that she should be the party's nominee based on her big state victories, rather than on the pledged-delegate count.  It was a slick and sophisticated attempt to change the rules in the middle of the game and declare herself the winner.

She said, "You all know that if we want a Democratic president, we need a Democratic nominee who can win the battleground states just like Ohio. And that is what we've done." Then, she listed the states she "won," boldly including Florida and Michigan in the litany.

And that was a big no-no:

First, the rules.  They were known and agreed to by everyone involved, well before the first votes were cast in Iowa. All the campaigns, including the Clinton campaign, pledged to honor the "early window" that included only four states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Enforcement of the primary timing rule against Florida and Michigan was necessary to prevent the 2008 nominating calendar from falling into chaos.

Will Rogers rightly observed: "I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat." Still, the rules are the rules.

The DNC rules also say superdelegates are independent. They are not obligated to follow their state's pledged delegate count. Indeed, Obama supporter Bill Bradley told "The NewsHour:"

There are no rules with superdelegates. They're not pledged. They can all shift at the last minute.

What say you Congressman Jackson?