Anderson@Large

Poll Vault

Election Day is 175 days away.

Last week, President Obama announced his support for same-sex marriage. Newsweek has since labeled Obama “The First Gay President.”

But heavy is the head that wears the crown, or more accurately, a rainbow-colored "gaylo." The New York Times reports:

The survey results made it clear that the president was wading into a divisive area of American life, one that may not top the nation’s priority list but still has the potential to hurt him at the margins in elections in November. About 4 in 10, or 38 percent, of Americans support same-sex marriage, while 24 percent favor civil unions short of formal marriage. Thirty-three percent oppose any form of legal recognition. When civil unions are eliminated as an option, opposition to same-sex marriage rises to 51 percent, compared with 42 percent support.

[…]

The poll showed that relatively few voters consider same-sex marriage their top issue amid continued economic uncertainty, and more than half said it would make no difference in their choice for president. But among those who said Mr. Obama’s position would influence their vote, more said they would be less likely to vote for him as a result; in a close race, even a small shift in swing states could be costly.

A CBS News/New York Times poll found Mitt Romney “has a slight edge” over Obama. Indeed, the latest email from Obama for America acknowledges “this election is going to be close.”

With the new voting changes, there is no margin for error.

Are you ready?

Voter ID Matters

CPAC, Day 1

On Day One, CPAC 2010 served up a double helping of beefcake Bay Staters.

Sen. Scott Brown made a surprise appearance. The Marriott Ballroom roared when he introduced himself:

I’m Scott Brown and I’m the newly elected Republican senator from Massachusetts … My truck is parked outside.

Brown said his victory “changed the course of politics in America.” He noted that when he started his campaign, his supporters “could have met in the phone booth.”

He was at CPAC to “introduce one of those guys who was in the phone booth with me” – former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Romney began by saying, “I’d take him anywhere I can take him.” He then got down to business:

I’m not telling you something you don’t know when I say that our conservative movement took a real hit in the 2008 elections. The victors were not exactly gracious in their big win: Media legs were tingling. Time Magazine’s cover pictured the Republican elephant and declared it an endangered species. The new president himself promised change of biblical proportion. And given his filibuster-proof Senate and lopsided House, he had everything he needed to deliver it.

[...]

I know that most of you have watched intently as the conservative comeback began in Virginia and exploded onto the scene in New Jersey. But as a Massachusetts man, who, like my fellow Bay-Staters, has over the years, been understandably regarded somewhat suspiciously in gatherings like this, let me take just a moment to exalt in a Scott Brown victory!

For that victory that stopped ObamaCare and turned back the Reid-Pelosi liberal tide, we have something to that you’d never think you’d hear at CPAC, “Thank you Massachusetts!”

Romney said President Obama and congressional Democrats are responsible for “Obama’s lost year”:

So when it comes to pinning blame, pin the tail on the donkeys.

He bashed Obama’s “liberal agenda for government” – cap-and-trade, healthcare reform and government bailouts.

A couple of people brought to my attention a New York Times’ piece about the “racial tones” of one of the speakers, Jason Mattera, a twenty-something from Brooklyn, NY.

In an interview with Ed Morrissey in the Bloggers Lounge, Mattera blasted the Times reporter.

The speakers focused on policy differences and used mocking tones to attack Obama. While this is my first CPAC, I’ve attended several Take Back America conferences, where George W. Bush was mocked unmercifully.

BTW, the lack of diversity at CPAC is proportionately no worse than that at progressives’ annual gathering.

Bottom line: Calling conservatives “racist,” “obstructionist” or “Party of No” is like water on a duck’s back. They are fired up and ready to go to the polls in November.

Showtime in Iowa

Tonight, Iowa voters, or more accurately, a narrow slice of caucus-goers, will separate the presidential contenders from the pretenders. Or not.

On the Democratic side, the race is too close to call. Polls show Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in a three-way tie. I won't predict a winner because race matters and respondents don't always tell pollsters what they really think on matters of race. So, it remains an unanswered question whether white voters are ready for a black president.

That said, the election will turn on voter turnout. While a record turnout is expected, it's anyone's guess who will show up. Sixty percent are projected to be first-time caucus-goers; a whopping 40 percent may be independent voters.

Candidates will use high-tech data mining and low-tech "knock and drag" to get their supporters to the caucuses. While Clinton won't hang a lamb chop in the window á la Perle Mesta, she is dangling sandwiches and chips to draw crowds.

On the Republican side, it's a two-man race between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. In politics, organization trumps inspiration. Huckabee's underfunded volunteer army of Christian soldiers, home-schoolers and gun nuts will likely be outflanked by Romney's war chest and brigade of paid campaign workers.

Massachusetts Miracle

With less than three weeks to go, it may take a miracle for Mitt Romney to catch Mike Huckabee in Iowa. Romney hopes Huckabee's support for tuition breaks for illegal aliens will slow his momentum among Republican caucus-goers for whom illegal immigration is a top concern.

Romney's claim that he "vetoed in-state tuition for illegal aliens" was disputed by Massachusetts state Sen. Dianne Wilkerson. At the National Black Caucus of State Legislators' recent political forum, Wilkerson said:

He never had a bill. The bill passed in the Senate but died in the House. The problem with Mitt Romney is not that he's a Mormon. He's a liar.

Well, this is the season of miracles. Mormons do believe in Jesus, don’t they?