On the Democratic side, the race is too close to call. Polls show Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in a three-way tie. I won't predict a winner because race matters and respondents don't always tell pollsters what they really think on matters of race. So, it remains an unanswered question whether white voters are ready for a black president.
That said, the election will turn on voter turnout. While a record turnout is expected, it's anyone's guess who will show up. Sixty percent are projected to be first-time caucus-goers; a whopping 40 percent may be independent voters.
Candidates will use high-tech data mining and low-tech "knock and drag" to get their supporters to the caucuses. While Clinton won't hang a lamb chop in the window á la Perle Mesta, she is dangling sandwiches and chips to draw crowds.
On the Republican side, it's a two-man race between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. In politics, organization trumps inspiration. Huckabee's underfunded volunteer army of Christian soldiers, home-schoolers and gun nuts will likely be outflanked by Romney's war chest and brigade of paid campaign workers.